If the Nigerian ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) permutations work out right, the next president will be Umar Yar’ Adua (Kastina state governor) deputized by Goodluck Jonathan (Bayelsa state governor). An interesting but surprising combination that seems driven by two factors: Atiku’s presidential ambition and the Niger-delta sectarian violence.
Atiku, the current vice president and a northern, has remained very potent on the Nigerian political terrain despite vicious attacks from the president and the PDP. Atiku is from the north and a member of the same political machinery that Umar Yar’ Adua belongs. The same machinery set up by the latter’s late older brother, Shehu Yar A’dua, who was also General Obasanjo’s second in command during 1976-1979 military regime.
Umar Yar A’dua despite being a late entrant into the presidential race, emerged from PDP primaries as the chosen one. The general impression is that he’s is clean. But being a core member of the Shehu’s political network and the having the name recognition makes him even a more juicy option for the PDP king-makers and the core north. Can Umar Yar A’dua checkmate Atiku’s move in the north? I don’t see why not.
Goodluck Jonathan on the other hand, comes as a complete surprise. He definitely has a load of goodluck working for him. Jonathan ascension into power came following the Alamieyeseigha’s (Alams) famous escape from the British and his subsequent impeachment. As the deputy to Alams, Jonathan became governor. And if things go right, he will be the vice president of Nigeria come 2007. Coming from the Niger-delta hotspot, Jonathan selection is nothing by a clever move to appease the various militia operating in the oil-rich Niger-delta.
The Yar A’dua-Jonathan ticket is simply strategic and appears not influenced by merit or popularity. Yar Adua’s relatively low on the popularity scale when compared to Duke or Marwa. Compared to Marwa who was the first to declare his intention among the presidential aspirants, Umar hasn’t invested much in the campaign process. Duke is extremely popular among Nigerians, particularly bloggers and appears very competent as well, but he is not from the Niger-delta per se. While Yar A’dua may be clean, Jonathan appears not so: His wife, or one of his wives, is being investigated for money laundering by the EFCC, yet he made the list.
Since the PDP has made it clear that Atiku is a force to reckon with, how will Atiku play his game? Is an Atiku-Utomi or Atiku-Duke combo a reality? Anything short of this will be an home run for the PDP. However, the only certainty in this political play is that the next president will be from northern Nigeria after the [tag]2007 elections[/tag].
[...] Reactions to the Yar A’dua-Jonathan ticket hasn’t been great on the Nigerian blogosphere. In addition to Nilla’s Spin list of related blogs,the I’d add the following blogs: Omo Dudu and Musings of Naija man. [...]
December 18, 2006 at 11:17 pm
Well, it’s election time in Nigeria today (Presidential) and we hope that all goes well! Enough of internecine blood-letting, unnecessary violence and acerbity…
April 21, 2007 at 10:45 am
My name is Urbain Tila, a musician, publisher and author (I have published 2 books, The spiritual Corner and The Triumph) I was born in the former Zaire and am intrested in African politics generally. Whilst Nigeria has its problems, the scale of mayhem and violence there can not be compared to the DRC. I believe that a truly free and fair elections in the tropics might not be 100 percent possible, but democracy is still more laudable than dictatorship
May 3, 2007 at 6:09 am
Welcome to the Parlor Seye and Urbain. I agree Nigeria has had some “luck”, but the nation has had it’s rough times and turbulence earlier though, and my impression is that the people have realized that getting killed or maimed isn’t that worthy a cause anymore. Now is this a positive development?
May 3, 2007 at 9:56 pm
It seems that Nigerians focus on many negative things whether national, economic or social. Yet all over the world, Nigerians continue to make their mark. For example in South Africa here, the University of the Free State has just announced that for the first time ever, a special Chancellor’s Medal will be awarded to Omoseye Bolaji who has contributed fantastically to literature and literacy here. Bolaji is a Nigerian citizen. I say congrats!
June 18, 2007 at 7:58 am
Nigerians must not focus too much on negative things, whether they be national, economic or social. All over the world, Nigerians continue to make their mark. For example in South Africa here, the University of the Free State has just announced that a special Chancellor’s Medal will be conferred on Omoseye Bolaji who has contributed fantastically to literature and literacy. Bolaji is a Nigerian citizen.
June 18, 2007 at 8:50 am
Nigerians must not focus too much on negative things, whether they be national, economic or social. All over the world, Nigerians continue to make their mark. For example in South Africa here, the University of the Free State has just announced that a special Chancellor’s Medal will be conferred on Omoseye Bolaji who has contributed fantastically to literature and literacy. Bolaji is a Nigerian citizen
June 18, 2007 at 8:55 am
Hi Pule:
Nigeria is a blessed nation as this award indicate, but we Nigerians have high expectations from their leaders and quickl to speak up, we don’t necessarily focus on negative issues; we also celebrate our achievements.
June 20, 2007 at 12:20 am