The recently released [tag]census[/tag] data has been generating some knee-jerk responses and ethnocentric sentiments from several Nigerians, even among the political case, many of whom have suddenly turned “experts”, spewing all sorts of half-baked analyses. The major bone of contention is the population of Lagos, which ‘appears’ underestimated when compared to the Northern state of Kano.
However, there are some interesting op-eds by Chxta and Akin. I’m pleased that finally there are people that can add some hard facts and common-sense to the census discussion; objectivity is crucial in matters like this.
If I may add, the ideal census is a complex process that involves the use of several databases- birth and death records, primary school registration and enrollment data etc; it is more than just counting heads from houses to houses, at times, samples are drawn capture the actual size and used to estimate the population size. None of the databases mentioned are kept accurately in Nigeria. So the best that can be done is just count - a seemingly simple process, but one that is prone to all sorts of error and biases.
Nigerians must accept the census figures, move on, and improve the process. It is silly to always “cry and kick” each time census figures are released and saying they are ‘manipulated’. I ask: “What makes a census accurate in Nigeria?”
The infrastructure needed to conduct an more accurate census must be built over time. The people must have the right mentality and not ‘boycott’ the process each time they feel something aren’t fair - if there is one thing we ought to have learned from the census - to boycott the census means to be under-counted. If several people travelled out of Lagos during the exercise, then why are we surprised the Lagos numbers are low?
Related posts:
Nigerian Politics: Nigerian Census – Gender Population Distribution Shift, a Red Flag
Grandiose Parlor: Facts from the Nigerian Census: Data on Sparsely Populated Oil-Rich Bayelsa
The Nigerian census figures defies global demographic norms. I firmly believe that like everything else happening in Nigeria, the census is a mere political tool to entrench the interest of a few. Until we get to a point where we can get accurate census, there is a need to divorce the census from allocation of legislative seats, revenue allocation and local government creation. I believe the census should fall within the purview of state and/or local governments. Some of the demographic norms defied by the Nigerian census includes:
1. Growth pattern by region from 1963 to date. Despite migration towards the coast (Lagos, South South etc) due to economic activities the north has a faster growth rate than the coastal south
2. Census result is inconsistent with scientific aerial estimation done by international agencies like various UN agencies
3. Number of occupied houses in the south not congruent with released result. Recent enumeration of houses in Lagos estimated that there are over 4 million residential houses in Lagos, which translates to 16million at an average occupancy of 4 per house. You and I know that 4 per house in Lagos is ridiculously low.If the argument of the NPC is that people migrated out of Lagos during the census then the census data is useless for planning purpose ‘cos amenities and solutions will be provided in locations where people dont live
More to come soon……
February 22, 2007 at 8:34 pm