In the Grandiose Parlor…

If the insurgency in the Nigeria oil rich Niger-delta is allowed to continue unresolved, it will cumulate into a catastrophic event of epic proportions with dire consequences on the socioeconomic and political stability of the nation. This is not a dooms-day prophesy, or a forecast that requires some complicated regression analysis; it’s simple common-sense.

What bothers me most is the nonchalant attitude of those most affected by the event: the state governments and their legislatures (members of the House of Assemblies). It is apparent the feds have given up on the issue, or have simply ran out of workable solutions that could quell the violence, short of heeding the demands of the militia: granting the region more control of the black gold being sucked out of their lands, and the release of their leaders and colleagues locked-up in various jails.

While I do not subscribe to the tactics of the militia in the Niger-delta, I can relate to their circumstances given the devastation oil exploration has brought on their environment, and the relative and disproportionate underdevelopment of the region. However, I wish these militia could see how misguided their actions are.

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In Nigeria, gaining access to national data (of relevance) on the Internet can be likened to squeezing water out of a rock. When I received the (unofficial) figures for the states as estimated by the 2006 census, I did one of the things I had wanted to do in a long while: cross-tab the monthly allocation each state receives from the federal government with their population. Since I couldn’t get a more recent figure from the Budget Office of the federal ministry of finance, I used the only available data I could find online- the 2004 May federal allocation to the 36 state governments. My jaw dropped on seeing the figures for Bayelsa state.

• The total population of Bayelsa state is 1,703,358; it’s the least populated in the nation.

• Bayelsa received 5,325,414,955.84 (Naira) in May 2004 from federal account (PDF document); the second highest in the nation. This works out to 3,126.42 Naira per citizen . The highest allocation-per-citizen ratio* in the country And this is just from federal account, the figure doesn’t include locally generated revenue.

*Allocation-per-citizen comparison: Nassarawa state in northern Nigeria=609.22; Delta state another oil-producing state=1,562.35.

Though Bayelsa is sparsely populated, it is one of the states in the oil-rich Niger-Delta – an impoverished region enveloped by years of endemic sectarian violence and decades of environmental degradation. With its natural resources – Bayelsa has a sizable portion of the oil and gas that bankrolls the Nigerian government – and based on the data presented above, it is mind boggling why the state remains so underdeveloped and its people impoverished. It can be argued that because of its very difficult terrain (riverine, swampy, marshland with mangrove vegetation), the cost of infrastructure development in Bayelsa is several times that of a “dry-land” state.

This is a valid argument; however, with population of 1.7 million people, developing Bayelsa shouldn’t be a Herculean task – if the leaders know what they are doing. And this hasn’t been the case; with the likes of D.S.P Alamieyeseigha – the former governor, who’s now on trial for corruption – the fortune of the state has been grossly mismanaged.

Opinion leaders from the Niger-Delta strongly believe that the federal allocation to the region and all other oil-producing states should be increased from the current 13% – a call I’d supported until when I ran the numbers and saw the data on Bayelsa. It is a tough sell why this should be, and I can relate to why this call has not been answered. After all, if Bayelsa (and other oil producing states) can’t manage its purse at the present size, there is no guarantee that it would do so with a fatter allocation.

If indeed the state census figure is accurate, instead of the various activist groups in the Niger-Delta clamoring for a bigger bite from the federal account, they should look inwards, and ensure that the decent portions they are receiving at the moment are well-managed. The emphasis shouldn’t be on how much, but how well-spent these monies are. Of course, more money is good, but it’s not always a sliver bullet.

“Five Chinese telecommunications workers have been kidnapped by unidentified armed men in southern Nigeria”, according to a BBC report. I wonder how this will impact the Sino-Nigeria business and trade arrangements which requires hundreds of Chinese technicians and expatriates. to be domiciled in Nigeria for several years. There is no doubt that the provision of private security for these people and other expats. in the Niger-Delta region has jacked-up the cost of doing business in Nigeria.

The agitations in the Niger-delta, and secessionist miltia in the eastern region, have sucessfully labelled Nigeria in the eyes of world as a time-bomb rigged to explode at any time.
As much as the Nigerian government tries to whitewash the stains of, and “airfreshens” the stench from, the rotting lumbers of our national foundation, it’s just a matter of time before things reach a tipping-point and our national foundation gives way completely. Well, unless the goons in charge realize the importance of carrying the people along.

As events indicate at the moment, the government strategies employed to nip sectarian violence and appease to those aggravated entities have not work. Rather than “staying the course of a doomed voyage”, isn’t it just simple commonsense to halt, take a breather, and reevaluate available options?

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Nigeriafirst.org: Nigeria-China relations in Perspective: 1999 – 2006