Grandiose Parlor

In the event of a failed elections in 2011, would Nigeria capitulate? This is the question analyzed on Foreign Affairs Magazine by John Campbell, the former U.S Ambassador to Nigeria.

While America has every reason to be concerned about 2011 elections, Nigerians need to be too. The last decade has brought some stability—even though shaky at best; the general prognosis looks better for the country overall. Advances made in states like Lagos, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Rivers, and Cross River has created a pacifying buffer of hope for democracy in the land. All this may be wiped away if the election goes bad in 2011. Continue reading…

Nigeria is a sick nation needing disruptive turnaround!

Kara meat markey in Lagos, Nigeria. Photo: Reuters

There are three clear-cut prognoses to any medical malady: It can either resolve; turn chronic, lingers and cripple the victim, figuratively; or the victim may just caput, and succumb to the illness.

That Nigeria is sick is stating the obvious, but as apparent as this may be, Nigerians keep getting smacked in the face, incessantly, by actions and developments that continue to buttress this fact. Here are some reference points in 2009: Continue reading…

How do we get to the point of having free and fair elections when godfathers continue to control who gets a position? And, when that happens, how do we convince those in power to actually do something positive for the people? This is the question Solomonsydelle, a fellow blogger on Nigerian Curiosity, asked recently.

I will start by saying Nigeria will not get to the “point of having free and fair elections” in just one step, and neither can it happen via one route.

Also, critical elements needed to make the transition happen are better access to information (to the masses), and the presence of well-led and organized pool of democracy advocates. It has come to the point that Nigerians need to learn from the likes of Martin Luther King and Malcolm X, and how they went about organizing their bases and championing their causes, because getting free and fair elections rely on just on the government, but all Nigerians, who must wrestle ownership of democracy from the hands of the few exploiting the system. Without this grassroots component, I doubt if the true meanings of democracy can be realized.

In addition, democracy advocates should also tap into success stories like Governors Tunde Fashola (Lagos), Rotimi Amechi (Rivers) and Segun Mimiko (Ondo) as tools and “democracy brands” to market in Nigeria. They must not fail to tap into the resources of existing grassroots structures like street and landlord associations, market women, transporters’ and students’ organizations to drive their agenda. These are ready-made entities waiting to be organized, tutored and assisted, and deployed into better relevance under the democratic system.

It is also important that advocates remain free of political party influence and quick to seize opportunities as they unfold. For example, the recent elections in Ekiti presented a great opportunity for advocates to “shock the system” when the Resident Commissioner, Ayoka Adebayo, resigned.

Nigerians were waiting to know what went wrong, and it was a major blunder that the Commissioner Adebayo appeared alone at the INCE office -– without support or security from the civil society, which could have used the moment to as display of force.

How about 40-50 lawyers and advocates showing up at INEC office with the Adebayo, and insisted on being present with her during the meeting with Iwu? Even if Iwu refused, there are ways the conversation could be recorded, discreetly, Nigerians need to know what happened behind that closed door. The more information (intelligence) the better prepared people are to fight for democracy.

I need to ask one question though…

How many of ‘us’ will be ready when called upon to step up, engage and contribute to activities strengthening democracy in Nigeria — and I don’t mean the all-too-easy proselytizing/ranting/complaining/ seen on newspapers and on this blogs and others?

The drama in Ekiti during and following the botched elections unfolds to yet another dimension with the State INEC commissioner, Ayoka Adebayo making a comeback.

The questions on everybody’s mind should be why she quit; what and who pushed her to (almost) bail out.

To me it’s a blessing in disguise that she vacated position — these questions would not have been necessary if she had stayed put as Akin and many others would have loved. And contrary to what it seems, it appears now that she might indeed be a pawn that didn’t fall off the chessboard as suggested on AfricanLoft, but one that had made a strategic retreat — even if that wasn’t her plan when she wrote that resignation letter.

With the comeback of Madam Adebayo, tough questions must be asked and culprits identified and sanctioned to the full extent of the law.

However, this process would amount to a useless exercise as long as the status quo remains, particularly within the police command.

That the Police Inspector General Okiro is still has a job is troubling, and another sad reminder that the man mandated to oversee Nigeria’s affairs is not really home. The Ekiti drama was a case of security breakdown. Simple. The Police had enough time to plan and perfect their strategies to keep the peace, but it could not do that. The buck stops with the head man; Okiro and his lieutenants in Ekiti should be fired!

In about 24 months, Nigerians will once again convey at the poll stations to elect their representatives. To seize the reins of government from the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), some politicians have been canvassing for the formation of a mega-party with broad-based national representation.

The logic is sound — a fragmented opposition can not withstand the formidable force of the PDP, however; the current Nigerian sociopolitical climate will most certainly prove this is not only a waste of time but ineffectual against the PDP.

The logic is fraught with several unrealistic assumptions; the institutions required for this to happen are not on ground or severely compromised in status.

The only way a mega party will be successful is to expect the following: free and fair elections; imaprtial security forces; unbiased and competent INEC (electoral agency); and election petition tribunals manned by objective and incorruptible judges. These will create a level playing field for elections come 2011. But these can’t happen within 24 months.

However, can the opposition can still go ahead and create a mega party for all I care, but they must invest significant resources into public awareness — the voting public is the key if the PDP is to be unseated, not the creation of a mega party.

To prime the electorate over the next 24 months shouldn’t be a difficult task — the current PDP-led government has nothing to show for their time in office. And even if the president decides to wake up and assume a supernatural strength today, the global economic crisis is bound to damp his efforts.

The coming election is really for the PDP to lose if the opposition is ready to work where it matters — at the grassroots. This is the time for the creation of a mass movement and public enlightenment
campaign in Nigeria. This is time for change. When the people are well primed, they become empowered and will work to ensure their votes are counted. They will be ready to resist fraud at the polling stations.

Quoting Abba Kyari whose Guardian article is a must-read: “Public enlightenment, not mega party”

There is no royal ride to success. The people properly enlightened, educated, mobilised and adequately led will reject and revolt against a situation that has all but enslaved them and condemned them to poverty. Sardines do not applaud their can.

I’m most certainly in total agreement!

They are the most important couple in the world right now. And by this time tomorrow, their lives, and that of those closely associated with them will take a new meaning.

Their lives will be changed forever!

Good luck!

When Adams Oshiomole (Action Congress candidate) decided to run for office as the Governor of Edo State, he didn’t know that it would take him 19 months to actualize his mandate. During those long and troubling months, the state and the people of Edo sat helplessly under the reign of Oserheimen Osunbor of the ruling People’s Democratic Party, whose “mandate” came via the manipulation of a weak electoral system.

On November 11 2008, The Appeal Court affirmed Oshiomole the duly elected governor of Edo State after the April 14, 2007 gubernatorial elections. While this can be seen as a major step in a democratic Nigeria, the fact that Oshiomole has his mandate back is just half of the victory; it is also necessary to address what led to the events during those 19 months.

While Oshiomhole looked on to the judiciary - at huge monetary and emotional expense - to make right what INEC and the Nigerian electoral system messed up, Osunbor, Oshiomole’s opponent from People’s Democratic Party sat in office as governor, calling the shots for good 19 months, a long time to allow an error of this magnitude to exist at such a high and delicate level.

Osunbor dictated the affairs of a state he had no business managing, got paid for a job he did not qualify, and enjoyed the trappings of power he did not deserve. And all Osunbor got for usurping power was an order to vacate office within 24 hours after the Appeal court verdict!

As it is, the Nigerian electoral system permits fraudulent ascension to power and encourages political contestants to bend the rules to the extent possible and with every ounce of impunity they can muster. This is what happened in Edo State and several other states in 2007.

After Peter Obi of Anambra State and Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers State, Oshiomhole becomes the third governor to secure his mandate through the judicial process. Edo state is also the first case in which an opposition party outwitted the ruling party among cases that had been decided. Many petitions are pending, as the Guardian reported, particularly that of Mimiko vs. Agagu in Ondo state.

Should the Nigerian electoral system reward fraud and injustice? No it shouldn’t; this is why electoral violations must carry stiffer penalties; annulments aren’t enough deterrent.

Related:
Nigeria: Jail terms for electoral violations